“Probably they are going to kill us in some way.”
These candid words from the soft-spoken Carlos Alcaraz highlight the grueling nature of the ATP Tour schedule. And in the same Laver Cup interview, Alcaraz candidly opened up on his mental state:
“Sometimes I don’t feel motivated at all. But as I’ve said many times…I play my best tennis when I smile and enjoy it on court. That’s the best option to keep motivating [myself].”
Players like Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev are the canaries in the coal mine. They’re signaling there is a systemic problem. No one is listening.
Watch the entire interview (start at 5:45): Carlos Alcaraz | 2024 Laver Cup Press Conference | Match 6 vs Ben Shelton
2025 ATP Tour Schedule
The tennis season is 11 months—from January to November. Let’s break down the 2025 schedule and the point structure for winning a tournament:
> Grand Slams: 4 tournaments (2,000 points)
> ATP Masters 1000: 9 tournaments (1,000 points)
> ATP 500: 16 tournaments (500 points)
> ATP 250: 38 tournaments (250 points)
*Note: some tournaments overlap and play out simultaneously.
Link: 2025 ATP Tour Schedule
When McDonald's Outpays Pro Athletes
The current schedule and ecosystem is a negative feedback loop and unsustainable. Players are independent contractors in a cutthroat marketplace.
Just ask Karue Sell, a pro player who cracked the top 300, and is documenting his journey on YouTube. He says in 2024 that he would’ve made more money working in the food service industry at McDonald’s.
Today I broke 300 for the first time. Yet I'd make more money working at McDonald's 😂 I'm ok because of my online work but I feel for my peers. The level is so high now all the way to 400 (at least), go watch a challenger. Tennis outgrew the conventional top 100 pic.twitter.com/ld7Ovjxkbm
— Karue Sell (@KarueSell) September 23, 2024
The current schedule and ecosystem is a negative feedback loop and unsustainable. Players are independent contractors in a cutthroat marketplace.
Just ask Karue Sell, a pro player who cracked the top 300, and is documenting his journey on YouTube. He says in 2024 that he would’ve made more money working in the food service industry at McDonald’s.
Noah Rubin (former #125) estimated his competition expenses to be ~$90,000-$100,000. This includes coaching, equipment and stringing, medical, food, travel, and housing accommodations.
Some of the top players have sponsorships but companies like Barilla and Rolex. But most players don’t have that luxury. And the incentive structure (accumulating points and money by winning) is based on a value proposition (the schedule) that has the athletes operating like independent contractors with roughly 4 weeks of ‘vacation’ time.
No salary. No safety net. Just pure, unfiltered market dynamics.
This was until 2024…
Guaranteed Pay, Injury Protection, and Newcomer Investment
The ATP has taken steps to course correct the structure of the sport.
New beta programs were implemented in 2024 to address some of the pain points players experience.
1. Guaranteed Base Earnings: This is about creating a financial safety net for players. It’s like giving them a basic income, but for tennis. The ATP is essentially saying, “Look, if you’re good enough to be in the top 250, we’ll make sure you can at least pay your bills.” It’s a smart move because it allows players to focus on their game instead of worrying about whether they can afford to keep playing.
2. Injury Protection: This is crucial. In tennis, your body is your business, and injuries can be catastrophic. This pillar is like an insurance policy. It’s telling players, “If you get hurt, we’ve got your back.” It’s not just about the money; it’s about giving players peace of mind so they can recover properly without rushing back too soon.
3. Newcomer Investment: This is the most interesting part to me. It’s like seed funding for tennis players. The ATP is betting on talent early, saying, “We believe in you, here’s some capital to invest in yourself.” It’s a brilliant way to accelerate the development of promising players and potentially raise the overall level of the game.
What’s fascinating is these programs address the economic realities of professional tennis. They acknowledge that the current winner-takes-all system isn’t sustainable for the sport as a whole. By providing these financial guardrails, the ATP is essentially is moving towards a more stable ecosystem.
Remember, in any competitive field, the base of the pyramid needs to be strong for the top to reach new heights. This program is strengthening that base.
Earnings: Pickleball vs Tennis
Sports are changing, but tennis is still playing by the old rules.
Tennis, the incumbent in racquet sports, is like a legacy tech company—big, well established, but slow to innovate.
Pickleball? Esports? VR Gaming? They’re disruptive startups, growing vertically while tennis grows linearly.
In tennis, wealth is concentrated at the top. Djokovic’s $185 million career earnings? That’s extreme leverage, but it’s not replicable for most players.
On the other hand, other sports like pickleball are creating opportunities for a new generation of athletes. The barrier to entry is low and affordable.
But the real story here isn’t about pickleball vs tennis. It’s about how tennis has been slow to adopt to new trends and technology. Risk is not in their vocabulary. Here are a couple examples of tennis being late to the party:
a) Hawk Eye electronic line calling system will be used at all tournaments in 2025. Guess when it was used for the first time in a pro tournament setting? 2006 at the Nasdaq-100 Open in Miami.
b) Releasing Break Point on Netflix in 2024. F1: Drive to Survive was released 5 years earlier in 2019.
Will the ATP Be Defensible 10-20 Years from Now?
Change isn’t easy. But it’s time for full redesign of the competitive ecosystem:
1. Reduce tournament density
2. Create meaningful economic incentives for player longevity
3. Treat players as human capital, not disposable resources
4. Utilize the most valuable form of currency (attention)
This isn’t just about tennis. It’s a microcosm of how organizations fail to innovate and cut corners for short-term gains instead of long-term sustainable growth.
Here’s the closing point:
The ATP and WTA are walking on thin ice.
In today’s economy, bubbles burst and obsolescence happens faster than most realize.
It appears the ATP and WTA will be merging. They have a choice: evolve or become obsolete.
And if McDonald’s can fundamentally change their operations by introducing mobile orders and in-store tablets…tennis can try, too.
In short, listen to your players and fans.